Strait of Hormuz Frozen Again After Iran Fires on Ships; Global Oil Inventories Approach Record Lows as Crisis Reshapes Energy Flows Worldwide
TODAY'S SIGNAL — The Strait of Hormuz crisis has entered a new and more dangerous phase.
The $430 million in suspicious pre-announcement oil trades adds a layer of market integrity concern.
After Iran fired on three vessels Wednesday, maritime traffic through the chokepoint effectively ceased — one bulk carrier attempting to exit, zero entering. This comes despite Trump's indefinite ceasefire extension, which maintains the U.S. naval blockade Iran considers a provocation.
One pattern. Trace it.
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A pattern worth naming
Watch for a UN Security Council resolution attempt. (2) China's reserve liquidation pace: Mercuria flagged aggressive selling now, but 1.5 billion barrels depletes fast at crisis consumption rates.
“If Brent stays above $95 through Q3 2026, which of our hedged contracts become loss-makers and when do we need to renegotiate?”
Ask your trading desk which of this week’s policy moves changes a 12-month price assumption, not just a 12-day one.
By Joseph Lancaster, Editor — with research from Pine Needle's intelligence layer.
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