U.S. Blocks Strait of Hormuz as Iran Nuclear Deal Talks Continue
The U.S.-Iran conflict is entering a decisive inflection point.
A $1 billion pre-ceasefire oil short is under congressional investigation.
The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has passed its first operational test — turning back all vessels attempting to breach it — while President Trump signals a deal could materialize this week, calling the war "very close to over." These seemingly contradictory signals are shaping a market caught between physical tightening and speculative hope. Nomura estimates a full blockade could strip another 2.3 million bpd from global supply, bringing total losses to 9.3 mi…
One pattern. Trace it.
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WHAT TO WATCH — NEXT 30-90 DAYS: 1
This week: U.S.-Iran talks outcome. Trump's suggestion of a deal this week creates a hard deadline.
“If the Agios Fanourios VLCC can't transit this week, which of our Q2 cargo nominations become undeliverable and what's our fallback cost?”
Ask your trading desk which of this week’s policy moves changes a 12-month price assumption, not just a 12-day one.
By Joseph Lancaster, Editor — with research from Pine Needle's intelligence layer.
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