Conflict in Middle East Disrupts Global Oil Supply
TODAY'S SIGNAL — The energy world is in crisis mode.
naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, announced Sunday after the collapse of Islamabad peace talks, sent oil surging 7% above $100 on Monday before diplomati…
The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, announced Sunday after the collapse of Islamabad peace talks, sent oil surging 7% above $100 on Monday before diplomatic hopes pulled Brent back to ~$98 on Tuesday. But the futures market is masking deeper distress: physical Forties Blend hit $149/bbl, and global production is down an estimated 11 million barrels per day.
One pattern. Trace it.
- 01
A pattern worth naming
Track Houthi activity, Iranian naval movements, and any disruption to Suez-connected shipping — a dual-chokepoint crisis would be catastrophic. (2) EU Energy Tax Paper (April 22): The European Commission's recommendations will signal how far Brussels will go to shield industry from energy costs — watch for precedent-setting fiscal measures.
“Given the $50 spread between futures and physical crude, are our hedges actually protecting us or creating basis risk we can't cover?”
Ask your trading desk which of this week’s policy moves changes a 12-month price assumption, not just a 12-day one.
By Joseph Lancaster, Editor — with research from Pine Needle's intelligence layer.
The next argument lands tomorrow at 6 a.m. Pacific. Get it in your inbox →