Strait of Hormuz Remains Under Iranian Control Despite Ceasefire; Europe Faces Jet Fuel Shortage
TODAY'S SIGNAL — The ceasefire between the U.S.
Oil markets are caught between these physical constraints and a massive speculative unwind — WTI swung from $117.73 to $91.05 in a single week, settling near $…
and Iran has changed the narrative but not the reality: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively controlled by Iran's IRGC, over 10 million bpd of crude remains trapped, and Europe's airport industry group warns jet fuel supplies could run out within three weeks. Oil markets are caught between these physical constraints and a massive speculative unwind — WTI swung from $117.73 to $91.05 in a single week, settling near $98, the largest weekly drop since July 2025. The supply…
One pattern. Trace it.
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A pattern worth naming
(2) European jet fuel inventories and crack spreads — ACI Europe's three-week warning puts the critical window at late April/early May, right as summer bookings peak; watch for airline schedule cuts or fuel surcharges. (3) SATORP restart timeline — TotalEnergies' next update will signal whether Saudi refining capacity returns in weeks or months.
“If Hormuz stays restricted through July and oil hits $120, which of our hedges lock in losses and which customers can't absorb passthrough pricing?”
Ask your trading desk which of this week’s policy moves changes a 12-month price assumption, not just a 12-day one.
By Joseph Lancaster, Editor — with research from Pine Needle's intelligence layer.
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