Housing Inventory Remains Below Pre-Pandemic Levels as GSEs Inject $12.5B into MBS Market

Signal

The real estate market is showing signs of structural transformation across multiple fronts. Despite a 9% year-over-year increase in listings, 36 states remain below 2019 inventory levels, with major markets like Chicago showing 70% supply deficits compared to pre-pandemic norms. This inventory constraint is being actively managed at the federal level, with GSEs deploying significant capital ($12.5B in January) to stabilize mortgage rates. Meanwhile, regulatory frameworks are evolving, with Oregon pioneering new SRO housing regulations that could provide a template for affordable housing solutions nationwide. The combination of persistent inventory challenges, active GSE market participation, and emerging regulatory solutions suggests a market that's still searching for equilibrium but is seeing coordinated efforts to address systemic challenges.

Stories

Housing Inventory Still 70% Below Pre-pandemic Levels in Major Markets

While listings rose 9% year-over-year, 36 states remain below 2019 inventory levels. Chicago and Connecticut markets are approximately 70% below pre-pandemic supply levels.

Impact · Persistent inventory shortages continue to shape market dynamics, creating competitive pressure for buyers and potentially limiting transaction volume for real estate professionals.

Action · Develop strategies to source off-market properties and consider implementing a systematic approach to engage potential sellers in low-inventory areas.

GSEs Purchase $12.5B in MBS During January, Influencing Mortgage Rates

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac added a combined $12.5 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities to their retained portfolios in January, helping to lower mortgage rates.

Impact · Strategic GSE purchases are actively influencing mortgage rate trajectories, potentially creating more favorable conditions for buyers.

Action · Monitor GSE purchase patterns to anticipate rate movements and adjust client guidance on timing of transactions.

III

Oregon Implements New SRO Housing Rules in Legislative Reform

Oregon passed legislation legalizing single-room occupancy (SRO) housing as part of broader housing reform, with Portland launching a pilot program to test implementation.

Impact · Creates new opportunities in the affordable housing segment and could influence similar regulatory changes in other states.

Action · Evaluate potential opportunities in the SRO market segment and monitor the Portland pilot program's outcomes for potential expansion to other markets.

Pattern

Watch for: 1) Monthly GSE MBS purchase volumes as an indicator of mortgage rate direction; 2) State-by-state inventory recovery patterns, particularly in markets more than 50% below pre-pandemic levels; 3) Adoption of Oregon-style SRO regulations in other states within 90 days; 4) Impact of inventory constraints on spring selling season metrics by mid-Q2 2026.

Real Estate

Housing Inventory Still 70% Below Pre-pandemic Levels in Major Markets

GSEs Purchase $12.5B in MBS During January, Influencing Mortgage Rates

Oregon Implements New SRO Housing Rules in Legislative Reform

Six layers on this brief.