Ocean carriers push rate hikes amid rising fuel costs while El Niño threatens Panama Canal disruptions; CBP extends tariff refund timeline to 90 days; UP-NS merger refiles April 30.

Maritime analyst Lars Jensen warns that El Niño conditions forecast for later this year could reduce water levels at the Panama Canal, potentially triggering draft restrictions similar to those that disrupted transit in 2023-2024 (Journal of Commerce). This comes on top of existing disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea that continue to affect commercial shipping routes.

Impact · If Panama Canal restrictions return, carriers will again face the choice of reducing vessel loads (cutting effective capacity) or rerouting via Suez or Cape of Good Hope, adding transit time and cost. East Coast-bound cargo from Asia would be most affected. Combined with the Red Sea situation, this could create a three-chokepoint crisis by Q4 that compresses available routing options significantly.

Action · Begin scenario planning now for Q4 routing alternatives. Identify which origin-destination pairs in your network depend on Panama Canal transit and model the cost and lead-time impact of rerouting. Shippers with flexibility to shift volumes to West Coast ports and use intermodal rail should evaluate those options before capacity tightens.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection now says its in-development refund system will take 60-90 days to issue tariff refunds after a request is submitted, a significant extension from the previously stated 45-day target (Supply Chain Dive). The system is still being built.

Impact · For importers eligible for tariff refunds — whether through exclusions, drawback, or policy changes — this extended timeline creates a material working capital impact. Companies that have been paying duties expecting relatively quick refunds now need to plan for up to three months of cash tied up in the refund pipeline. At scale, this can represent millions of dollars in delayed capital.

Action · Finance and trade compliance teams should update cash-flow forecasts to reflect the 60-90 day refund window. If your company is filing or planning to file for tariff refunds, factor the extended timeline into working capital planning and consider whether duty drawback financing or bonding solutions could bridge the gap.

Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern plan to file a revised merger application with the Surface Transportation Board on April 30, addressing deficiencies and complaints that caused regulators to deem the original filing incomplete (Journal of Commerce). The railroads say the updated application will respond to many concerns raised by critics, including shipper groups.

Impact · A UP-NS combination would fundamentally reshape the North American Class I railroad landscape, reducing the number of major Western-Eastern rail competitors and potentially altering rate dynamics, service patterns, and intermodal options across the continent. Shippers, intermodal operators, and port authorities in overlapping service territories should prepare for a prolonged regulatory review that will define competitive rail access for decades.

Action · If your company ships significant volume by rail or intermodal, engage your trade association or file comments with the STB once the revised application is public. Identify which lanes in your network are served by both UP and NS today, as those are the lanes most at risk of reduced competitive options post-merger.

An increasing number of federal, state, and municipal lawmakers are moving to freeze data center development, which has been a significant source of project cargo and heavy-haul freight (Journal of Commerce). The push spans multiple levels of government and multiple jurisdictions.

Impact · Data center construction has been one of the strongest demand drivers for project cargo, specialized trucking, and heavy-lift logistics over the past several years. If development bans gain traction, carriers and logistics providers with exposure to this vertical will see a direct revenue hit. The trend also threatens port volumes for oversized equipment imports, including transformers, generators, and cooling systems.

Action · Project cargo and specialized logistics providers should map their current and pipeline data center-related revenue by geography and assess exposure to jurisdictions considering bans. Diversify business development efforts toward other infrastructure verticals — semiconductor fabs, energy transition, and manufacturing reshoring — that share similar equipment profiles.